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By John Carey, Catherine
Yang, Otis Port, and Christopher Palmeri
Gulf War-era
technology has been leapfrogged many times over,
creating weapons that could give the U.S. an edge in this
new war
Only weeks before the horror of Sept. 11, an obscure Defense
Dept. agency and a bevy of contractors struck a potential
blow against terrorists. For the first time, they demonstrated
that remotely guided weapons
could target and hit moving vehicles.
Even though the technology was aimed at
more conventional foes, it could be just the ticket for taking
out terrorists fleeing across the desert. The trick: using
airborne radars and computer wizardry to steer a missile or
guided bomb directly into an elusive target.
This is just one example of the leap in
weapons technology since the Gulf War 10 years ago. Despite
the compelling images of "smart" bombs smashing
into their targets, Operation Desert Storm laid bare serious
shortcomings.
"We never successfully hit a single
Iraqi mobile Scud launcher," says Robert Haffa, head
of Northrop Grumman Inc.'s analysis center. Because of such
disappointments, the Pentagon poured millions into developing
brainier systems that are now ready -- or soon to be ready
-- for battle.
Waiting to
Strike
These range from unmanned planes bristling
with radar and other sensors for mapping rugged terrain or
spotting hidden enemies to cruise missiles that can loiter
overhead for hours, waiting for the best moment to strike.
"In the Gulf War, we had smart weapons.
Now, increasingly, we are fielding
brilliant weapons," says Robert Martinage, senior defense
analyst at the Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments.
Admittedly, new technology rarely performs
as billed. But even accounting for inevitable glitches, defense
analysts believe the new smarts give
the military a far greater edge.
In Desert Storm and the 1999 Kosovo conflict,
bad weather made air strikes impossible because the lasers
used in laser-guided bombs couldn't pierce cloud cover. Now,
missiles and bombs get their directions from global positioning
satellite systems (GPS), enabling them to reach their targets
at any time.
"This is going to be a 7-by-24 war,"
predicts John E. Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org. Some
bombs are also equipped with sensors that can distinguish
between, say, a bus or a truck, along with the brains needed
to pick the right target.
They could be dropped by the scores to
do what once was an oxymoron -- precision carpet bombing.
Also, improved ground-penetrating bombs can not only pierce
deep, multistory bunkers, but also
explode at precisely the right level.
Instant Reaction
Meanwhile, information technology is shortening
the time needed to launch attacks. During the Kosovo conflict,
satellite images and data from radar-equipped 707s -- part
of the Joint Surveillance & Target Attack Radar System,
or JSTARS -- flowed in separate streams. The data had to be
integrated and evaluated before any decisions could be made.
But information from disparate sensors
and surveillance systems is increasingly being combined electronically.
It used to take days to react to new information, says Gregory
F. Treverton, senior policy analyst at Rand Corp. "That's
shortened to hours, to minutes, and now, probably, to seconds,"
he says.
Of course, the most brilliant weapons
are useless "if you don't know where Osama bin Laden
is," cautions Robert Pfaltzgraff, an international security
studies professor at Tufts University.
Still, new technology is bringing changes
there, too. For instance, defense experts expect that Northrop
Grumman's sensor-bearing Global Hawk unmanned plane will also
be equipped to pick up communications from terrorist camps.
Then, once potential areas of terrorist activity are located,
ground troops are expected to be sent in to confirm the targets.
The soldiers will be equipped not only
with GPs receivers and satellite
equipment that pinpoint the locations of every
member of the unit, they will also carry third-generation
night vision gear capable
of seeing 500 yards through the gloom.
A laser viewing system from Intevac Inc.,
now being demonstrated, is even better. It can identify buildings,
cars, and people from miles away. And the soldiers can upload
the exact images they're seeing to command centers.
Difficult
Task
"Because of these devices, you don't
have to get belly-to-belly to get confirmation of a target,"
says one industry source. As a result, "whatever operation
we take will clearly be at night, because our folks have capabilities
no one else does."
Will all this be enough? Defense experts
admit shutting down camps in countries like Afghanistan is
a difficult task. "Bin Laden knows we can put holes in
the ground, but disrupting
his operations is more challenging," says
Francis M. Cevasco, vice-president of national security consultant
Hicks & Associates Inc.
Human smarts can often trump the silicon
kind. "You can beat high tech by going very low tech,"
warns Neil C. Livingstone, CEO of risk-management consultants
Global Options Inc.
What's more, industry experts lament,
the technology for gathering, integrating, and analyzing information
-- crucial in fighting fast-moving, shadowy foes -- has gotten
short shrift from the Pentagon, so it hasn't progressed as
much as they would have liked. And the military's tortuous
acquisition rules, plus the relatively small defense market,
have kept Silicon Valley companies from playing a major role.
Fighting Chance
All that may now start to change. Clever
research projects, such as the development of computer-imaging
systems that can identify people at a distance, are bound
to get a major boost, predicts one industry veteran. "Wartime
is a great time for innovation," he says.
Analysts readily admit a high-tech military
can't win what is expected to be a long-running war on terrorism
all by itself. Diplomacy and choking off financial support
for rogue groups is also crucial.
But today's
smarter, more powerful US forces stand more than a fighting
chance of winning battles.
Abstracted
from Business Week September 27, 2001
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