The cold winter months and rapidly approaching flu season have
sent many Americans into the state of panic. Perhaps it has something
to do with this overstated statistic: 36,000 die annually from influenza.
However, despite these overwhelming numbers, researchers have discovered
that the flu is not the lone cause behind these deaths.
So why the flubbed stats? Part of the problem lies in the fact
that the flu is not a direct killer, but a fatal contributor to
a group of factors leading to one's death.
Another reason for these skewed figures is that the system for
obtaining this death toll number is complex, imprecise and anonymous.
In fact, in 2002, city health officials estimated there was roughly
2,500 deaths in New York caused by the flu virus. The actual number
of deaths caused by the flu was two. Further, according to city
health records, not a single death certificate from 2001 listed
the flu as the culprit.
"Flawed Findings"
Here's where the numbers come from: The health department and the
CDC start by looking at the average number of pneumonia deaths during
a given period of time. If the flu is present at that time, the
marked increases in the number of pneumonia deaths are noted. All
deaths that exceed the initial average number of pneumonia deaths
are classified under the flu.
The annual influenza-caused deaths are a "best guess,"
according to an epidemiologist with the New York City Health Department.
There are many factors that can complicate the severity of the flu.
With the virus changing every year, it is likely the flu will find
victims who cannot fight it. This year the virus is said to target
children under 2, adults 65 and older and those with chronic health
problems such as asthma. These groups are most at risk because one
of two problems may occur:
- The flu can get into the lungs
- It may cause secondary infections
Due to the shortage of doses, many doctors may begin prescribing
anti-viral medications. One doctor explains that he prescribes such
medications regardless if his patients have received a flu shot
or not. His belief is that there are several anti-viral drugs that
can be effective in saving lives. To determine if one is suffering
from the flu, this doctor saves his patients up to $5,000 (the cost
to administer tests) by relying on good old-fashioned observation.
The symptoms are proof enough:
- Very high fever (102.8 degrees or more)
- Too sore to move
New
York Times November 3, 2004
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