Finding convenient, quality health care may soon be a frequent
problem among American citizens, as a severe shortage of available
physicians in the United States has been predicted. Several new
studies explain that with 79 million baby boomers reaching retirement
age and demanding more medical care, the shortage will worsen save
the nation starts producing more doctors.
In fact, unless action is taken soon, the nation will experience
a projected shortage of 85,000-200,000 doctors come 2020.
According to the studies, the country needs to train 3,000-10,000
more physicians a year, which is up from the current 25,000, to
meet the growing medical needs of the nation. However, seeing as
though it takes 10 years to train a doctor, officials worry that
is not enough time to prevent a drought. Particularly scarce are
old-fashioned doctors, including:
- General surgeons
- Radiologists
- Anesthesiologists
Major Contrast From 1994 Overabundance
Prediction
The shortage is an extreme turn around from earlier predictions:
In 1994 the Journal of the American Medical Association predicted
an excess of 165,000 doctors by 2000, which is a far cry from current
statistics. America has about 800,000 active physicians, which is
up from 500,000 20 years ago; however, unless more medical students
begin their 10-year training soon, the supply will begin to diminish
within a decade, when doctors from the baby boomer generation retire
in massive quantities.
What’s more, even the American Medical Association (AMA)--the
influential lobbying group for physicians--has deserted its long-standing
position that an “oversupply exists or is immediately expected.”
Because of this earlier predicted glut of doctors, the United States
stopped opening medical schools in the 1980s; it seems such predictions
were made in error and are resulting in a negative effect on the
country.
The Real Problem? Poor Distribution, Not
Scarcity
Some medical policy specialists explain that the shortage scare
of doctors in the United States is not an issue concerning too few
doctors, but simply poor distribution of them. In fact, one critic
claimed the problem stems from:
-
More and more physicians taking care of fewer and fewer patients
-
Doctors gravitating to high-paying practices, such as sports
medicine and total body scans, that only serve the wealthy and
well-insured at the expense of Medicare patients and others
USA
Today March 2, 2005
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