Over the next few years, several businesses are planning to start selling dual-mode cellular/Wi-Fi phones, which can make calls using either a cellular network or a wireless Internet connection.
These phones are likely to alter the telecommunications industry and change the way consumers use phone service. They may spell the end of conventional wired telephone services.
As much as 30 percent of cell phone calls are now made inside homes. If those calls could be made more cheaply by means of the Internet, wireless companies could free up capacity, and both businesses and consumers could save money.
The technology is still in an experimental stage, but some companies have already begun to offer cell-Fi phones on a limited basis.
Recently, New Scientist reported that 4G cell phones (not land lines) in Japan using this technology could receive data at 100 megabits per second on the move and at up to one gigabit per second while stationary. To give you an idea of that bandwidth power, you could look at 32 high-definition (not regular TV) video streams at once while you were travelling in your car.
The United States is making some limited progress in 3G phone networks.
Verizon has already rolled out its 3G networks in 14 U.S. cities, and you can connect wirelessly to the Internet for unlimited use for $60 a month in these cities. Unfortunately, Chicago is not one of the cities, but within a year they should have most of the United States covered.
The Sprint Nextel merger is rapidly following with their 3G EVDO systems. However, it is my belief that you and I will not have to wait 10 years for 4G phones or expensive 3G wireless, as Wi-Max is on the way and will be here in one to two years.
Wi-Max is already being tested in remoate areas of Argentina for widespread access to the Internet.
Wi-Max is short for Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access and comes in two flavors. The first, known as fixed wireless, is similar to Wi-Fi, but on a much larger scale and at faster speeds.
Unlike Wi-Fi, Wi-Max can transmit up to 30 miles. Yes, you read it right--30 miles. It doesn't take many Wi-Max towers to cover most cities. Most communites will only require a handful of Wi-Fi transmitters to provide coverage to their residents.
The really exciting developement, though, is nomadic Wi-Max, which would keep Wi-Max-enabled devices (like your "cell" phone) connected over large areas. Intel is projecting that they will have this deployed in their notebooks in late 2006 or early 2007.
I have had conventional VoIP (voice over Internet protocol) phone service for nearly three years, and over 2. 5 million Americans have now made a similar choice. Next year, WiMax will be widespread.
What is the Exciting News for You?
In the next few years it is clear to me that you will have the ability to connect wirelessly to the Internet nearly everywhere in the country.
If you have a VoIP wireless phone that connects automatically to the Internet, you can make a call on the Internet. Just like current systems like Vonage, there is a fixed monthly fee and you can make as many calls as you want for a fixed amount. This includes to many countries like Canada and Mexico.
Other plans allow you to add up to 35 countries to the list.
The major innovation here is that you will do this wirelessly and not be fixed to the few hundred feet you can walk in your home on your portable phone.
So rather than use your cell phone, you will connect to the Internet wirelessly and use VoIP as an alternative to your cell phone carrier. These new VoIP wireless phones are essentially alternatives to your cell phone.
Just as many people dropped their land lines, nearly everyone will be dropping their cell phone carriers. The reason? Rock bottom prices. No longer will you pay over $100 a month for your cell phone. You will pay $25 for your home AND cell phone for UNLIMITED use. Also remember that you avoid paying taxes or hidden fees. Just $25 a month.
So you can call anywhere in the United States and Canada for one low monthly fee. If you have to call internationally, the rates are typically 3 cents a minute. Compare that to the nearly universal $1 per minute or more for most international cell phone calls.
Very exciting and one of the major fruits of Moore's Law.
In one month my technical staff is deploying an open source VoIP system in our office called Asterisk that is equally amazing. I need to make a one time purchase of about $10,000 in hardware and rent a voice T1 line for about $500 a month, but after doing that I will be able to have nearly 200 phone lines that I can have unlimited calls on.
Absolutely amazing, considering that this would costs hundreds of thousands of dollars in conventional PBX systems and tens thousands of dollars in monthly phone fees.
It could not be clearer that the death bell is tolling for the conventional American phone system.
One thing you can count on in this life is change.
Who would have thought that AT&T would have ever collapsed, as in its heyday it was one of the largest and most powerful corporations on earth.
Well, technology can do that.
That is why I am equally convinced that even though the top 10 drug companies have more wealth than the rest of the Fortune 500 companies combined, it is clear that they, like the phone companies, will fall.
You and I will catalyze that process. Mark my words. This is happening as you read this page.
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