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The Real Price of Oil

The price of oil is up, and everyone is worried about the potential economic consequences. But what if the price of oil wasn’t really up? What if it were just an illusion?

The American Geological Institute (AGI) recently released a report looking at the price of crude oil in relation to the U.S. dollar and the price per ounce of gold. They found that the price of oil has been going up in relation to currency only. This means that the value of oil has not been increasing in real terms; instead, currency has just been decreasing in value.

In other words, if U.S. currency were still based on gold, as it was until 1971, then the price of oil would be stable.

Oil Chart

So if you are an American, the price of gas hasn’t really gone up, it is just that the value of the dollar has significantly plummeted.


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Comment on This Article Community Comments (39)
 
 
Posted On Aug 22, 2008
One could make the same case for the cost of food.  People always complain to me that "organic costs too much".  My reply is that, no, the dollar buys too little.  Then they say, "organic food is a fad for ignorant yuppies".  And then I reply, "all food was organic, oh, 80 years ago,"  which, not coincidentally, is about the time the world began moving away from specie backed currencies.

The fact is, the food supply keeps getting cheapened by mass production techniques and substitution of inferior ingredients, which helps offset the cost of this food to the public at the expense of health, safety, and nutrition.  Actual, real food, often organic these days, accurately reflects the on-going, world-wide debasement of all currencies, as all currencies no longer have any explicit connection to an objective, physical standard.

It's not a question of economic policy, it's much deeper and more fundamental than that.  We live in an era of rampant, covert theft and fraud, brought about through the structure of the monetary system itself.  Ultimately, it's a moral question, a question of just weights and measures.


 
Bob2_203
Savvy User Savvy User, Joined On 6/2006
Bob2_203  
 
 
 
Posted On Sep 09, 2008

I find it funny that I remember a certain presidential candidate spoke about putting actual money behind our money again...A Mr. Paul I believe =).  He said until the Fed is gone the dolar will be lower and lower, because they print what they need not what they have gold to back anymore.  Paper money in and of itself is a bad idea.  He spoke to this too and unfortunately his own party fried him..........figures.  Make the dollar worthless then you need more of them to buy the things you need.  In truth, things aren't going up, the dollar is being devalued.  Correct?


 
taterbug1999
Novice User Novice User, Joined On 7/2008
taterbug1999  
 
 
 
Posted On Aug 21, 2008
What illusion is the rest of the world suffering on this one then?
             I obviously have the same 'illusion' with my bank balance ...
....and cost of living here in the UK....

I blame it on the price of nuts in relation to the cost of accountants and the fact that, in real terms,politicians have been decreasing in value.....

In other words, if UK currency was still based on product production, as it was until the glorious Thatcher years, then the price of horse sh.. would be stabled...

If soil is worth the same, and horse sh.. is just worth less, maybe the UK economy needs to shift it's focus away from photography and towards a better ergonomic policy at home....

whoops!...Sorry about that, just having a rational, Ridelust moment...

  

 
david
Savvy User Savvy User, Joined On 8/2006
david  
 
 
 
Posted On Aug 24, 2008
All money is, is a medium of exchange. Gold has been used for this medium for a long time because it is uncorruptible, malleable, heavy, and I believe, attractive in its refined state, to look at. Its weight is measureable. Although there is a finite supply of it, there is still quite a lot of gold in the world; enough to continue to use it as money for a long time hence.

When the gold standard was abandoned, the US government gained a greater control ( albeit, temporary) over its money supply and valuation. Over time, the fiat money supply grew and value fell. Think if you were playing Monopoly and decided to run out mid-game and buy another gameboard so you could use the extra money. All of a sudden, everyone would have lots more money, but commodity supply didn't increase. There would still be just one Boardwalk. Whoever owned it would be inclined to charge a lot more for it, if someone wanted to buy it, because there was more currency in float.

The same thing is happening with oil. We still have, more or less, the same amount of oil available on the world market. People in the US, generally have more dollars to spend at the moment. There are more millionaires than ever before in the history of this country. But our money is worth much less than it used to be worth. So, oil producers want more of our devalued dollars for a barrel of oil. They aren't really asking for more money, just value for value.

 
Magnolia
Savvy User Savvy User, Joined On 6/2006
Magnolia  
Replied

stoic
Apprentice User Apprentice User Joined On 3/2007
stoic  
 
Posted On Aug 24, 2008
Pretty good Magnolia ....uncorruptible because it cannot be conjured out of thin air....

but...since since the private bankers' jekyll island (your neck of the woods, i see) freak-fest happened in '13, & fdr did not do his dirty deed until '33, probably more accurate to say the gold standard was forced out (by those same jekyll island mr. hydes...). And it was those bankers who gained control of the currency, rather than gov.....


MikeM_203
Apprentice User Apprentice User Joined On 5/2007
MikeM_203  
 
Posted On Sep 09, 2008

Good analysis, Magnolia...but you left out one small detail people seem to keep forgetting.  That is, the oil producers do NOT set the price of oil.  Oil is traded as a commodity on the open market and the oil producers have to sell for whatever market price is currently being traded.  Imagine if you sold a product that today is worth one price, but tomorrow is worth a lower price...and there's nothing you can do about it.  You'd be like a farmer bringing a great crop to market, only to find that so is everyone else, so the price has dropped.

Basically, my point here is that while oil is FAR overpriced considering the amount still in the ground (and the amount the U.S. could be drilling for themselves if someone would get their head out), the fact is that the price is not driven by greedy oil barons, but by supply and demand.  Countries like China and India are on the rise and oil demand is going to remain HEAVY for some time, thus propping up both the market and the price.

Finally, people like to point the finger at the evil oil companies (I won't say they're good, but I don't believe they are any more evil than any other huge corporation), however the FACT is that government makes more money per gallon of gas than anyone else involved in the process.

Let me say that again...

Our government (and most governments around the world that heavily tax oil at the retail level) collect more per gallon of gas THAN ANYONE ELSE INVOLVED IN THE PROCESS.

Said another way, the "evil" oil companies spend billions of dollars of their own money to seek out oil supplies, build infrastructure, and bring the product to market, but governments - who assume ZERO risk in the endeavor - make the lion's share of profits.  And THEY are often the ones doing the finger pointing...but do they ever cut their draconian energy taxes, even when people are having trouble heating their homes?  Hmmmm...



Coco Nut
Novice User Novice User Joined On 11/2007
Coco Nut  
 
Posted On Sep 10, 2008

Wow - GREAT analogy! Something I can even use to explain the current dire straits to my kids. Two  Monopoly set - love it.



Bill McDougald
Novice User Novice User Joined On 1/2007
Bill McDougald  
 
Posted On Oct 02, 2008

Magnolia, gold should be our money, not paper. Did you know that there is fraud and deception everywhere there is money to be made. Every stock , currency and commodity is manipulated by "trusted" and "authorized" sources that feed false information to the brokers and that causes prices to go up and down. The Canadian Dollar is a case in point. In 1995 when Canada went into the black for the first time in 30 years due to the huge money made from websites, and hence huge taxes, and the debt was being paid down, the Dollar should have risen. Instead it went from 72 cents all the way to 59 cents over the next 10 years. Then I heard that the powers above the monopolies did not want any country to be so powerful as the United States, then the Canadian Dollar magically rose. There is no free market, just as there is no Democracy. All we have is the appearance of a free market or a Democracy. Have a wonderful day but beware the markets.


 
 
 
Posted On Sep 08, 2008

Of interest to this discussion:

“On June 4, 1963, a little known attempt was made to strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the government at interest.

“On that day President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order No. 11110 that returned to the U.S. government the power to issue currency, without going through the Federal Reserve.

“President Kennedy was assassinated just five months later. No more silver certificates were issued. Executive Order No.11,110 was never repealed by any U.S. president and is still valid. No president since has utilized it.”

video.google.com/videoplay


 
Islander
Moderator User Moderator User, Joined On 3/2007
Islander  
Replied

MikeM_203
Apprentice User Apprentice User Joined On 5/2007
MikeM_203  
 
Posted On Sep 09, 2008

ISLANDER -- you could not be more wrong!!!

You are perpetuating what we call a "Patriot Myth".  People like to think that Kennedy was some great hero to the constitution.  The FACT is that he was a globalist and cared no more for the U.S. constitution than succeeding presidents.

But don't just take my word for it.  This has been thoroughly debunked.  It has now gained the status of an urban legend.  I myself have read the Executive Order you speak of and it does nothing of the sort that it is rumored to have done.  Simply reading it makes this clear.  Did you actually read the order?

Here is an in-depth analysis of this issue by G. Edward Griffin - the same individual who wrote the must-read book "The Creature from Jekyll Island".

www.freedomforceinternational.org/freedomcontent.cfm

**please note: this myth is routinely stated as fact by the Christian Common-Law Institute, but do NOT believe it.  Read the clear and irrefutable essay above and stop spreading this ridiculous (and pointless) urban legend!



Islander
Moderator User Moderator User Joined On 3/2007
Islander  
 
Posted On Sep 09, 2008

Mike M, I stand corrected. I did originally look up the executive order in question, and in fact I made an effort to read Griffin's book, but my eyes glazed over after the first 200 pages or so. I thought I was sharing an interesting bit of history... I apologize for misleading readers, but this sort of economic mumbo-jumbo swathed in legalese lends itself to misinterpretation!



Ruby23
Novice User Novice User Joined On 2/2008
Ruby23  
 
Posted On Sep 16, 2008

Kennedy got into Office based on his fathers clout as a high ranking Mason, however once in office he did turn on a dime and was not going along with what the brotherhood wanted to implement and he was taken out.  The only other president who was not a member of a secret society was Abraham Lincoln, also assasinated.  Coincidence???  I don't think so.



Bill McDougald
Novice User Novice User Joined On 1/2007
Bill McDougald  
 
Posted On Oct 02, 2008

Islander, nice tidbit of information on JFK. Did you know JFK was murdered for not bombing Cuba and starting the WWIII. His advisors kept advising him to go ahead and give the order to attack Cuba, but he wouldn't do it, he was a good president.


 
 
 
 
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